Don’t Believe the Hype
Jay Bilas said it on ESPN last night and Roscoe Nance wrote it again in today’s USA Today:
Oden is considered the best center prospect since Patrick Ewing, while Durant is regarded as the top perimeter prospect since Kevin Garnett. Durant, the consensus collegiate player of the year, averaged 25.8 points and 11.1 rebounds and shot 47.3% for the Longhorns last season.
Nance is describing Greg Oden, the expected number one pick in the next NBA Draft. The seven-footer out of Ohio State should end up with the Portland Trail Blazers, who beat the odds and one the league’s draft lottery Tuesday night.
Oden was great during his only college season and in a league where talented centers are a rare commodity deserves to go first. (Kevin Pritchard, the Blazers general manager says he will interview Oden and Texas forward Kevin Durant before making a final decision.)
But calling him the best center prospect since Patrick Ewing is flat-out wrong.
First of all, I very much doubt that Oden is a better prospect than David Robinson, who was drafted first in ‘87 by the San Antonio Spurs. Robinson, out of the Naval Academy, didn’t join the Spurs until two years later due to his military commitment. Robinson had an exception senior season at Navy, carrying the Midshipmen to the Elite Eight. As a prospect, Robinson had much more of a ready-to-go offensive game than Oden does at this point in his development. Oden, in fact, is going to be a work in progress on offense for at least a couple of years. It’s enough of an issue that Durant is expected to have more of an immediate impact as a rookie than Oden.
But, forget about Robinson.
The suggestion that Oden is a better prospect than LSU’s Shaquille O’Neal (drafted number-one overall by the Orlando Magic in 1992) is ludicrous. Shaq was bigger, stronger, quicker and more developed as a player than Oden is at the moment. Shaq played three seasons of college ball, averaging 27.6 and 24.1 points per game in his sophomore and junior seasons.
Robinson and Shaq have six NBA titles between them and a multitude of MVP awards and other individual honors. It’s almost defeating to Oden to compare him as a prospect to them and worse to expect similar results. But it’s not Oden’s fault. The blame falls on the media, more interested in hype than accuracy.
