Any idiot. . .
Robert nicely summarizes the contradictions inherent in Shrub’s trip to Anbar, to meet with Sunni tribal chiefs:
Reading this Michael Gordon piece, I’m struck by the extent to which the strategy of allying with Sunni tribes amounts to a renunciation of US state-building aims in Iraq. Put simply, enhancing the prestige and capabilities of multiple non-state actors in Iraq is directly contradictory to the aim of constructing a viable nation-state. Indeed, I’m not sure I could envision a strategy less likely to produce a viable state; these groups are going to contend against what amounts to the Iraqi government at the earliest convenient opportunity. State-building is a nasty, violent business during which the central government becomes more militarily powerful than other societal groups, eventually disarming and delegitimizing its competitors. Current US policy is to rearm and relegitimize the competitors; any idiot should be able to see the contradiction.
- - - - - - - - - NOT JUST ANY IDIOT - - - - - - - -
The alliance with one-time Sunni insurgents has reduced attacks against American troops and assisted fighting foreign Islamic radicals, but at the cost of strengthening opponents to the central Iraqi government — this is precisely why Maliki and his government decry our actions there and refuse to take part in them. At some point, if the Iraqi government tries to exert its authority over Anbar, these same allies will fight them, using the resources we’ve provided them with.
The other contradiction inherent in the trumpeting of Anbar is the diminution of the raison d’etre for fighting in Iraq — preventing the establishment of an al Qaeda caliphate. Al Qaeda is widely unpopular in Iraq, a fact which polls have repeatedly shown. The fact that even Sunni rejectionists bitterly opposed to US occupation and the Shiite government have turned against al Qaeda shows just how unviable this threat — BushCo’s remaining rationale for staying in Iraq — is.
But, as Rob points out, the Bush administration is so desperate for anything it can spin as a success, it’s not worried about logical consistency, or long term results.
In fairness, this is something that we should have done a while back, arm the Sunnis. With as massive a Shi’a majority as Iraq has, with the (apparently, sanctioned) Shi’a death squads, put guns in their hands and let them fight it out.
Of course, none of this would have happened if…
[...] Bush cling to Anbar as a model for success is sad enough, but now the Pentagon and the war pimps are trying to sell the idea that alliances with tribal [...]