McCain gives up on Michigan. . .

Jonathan Martin broke this earlier today, and the WaPo’s Cillizza is now reporting as well.

What then does McCain’s decision to stop running ads in the state — an all but certain concession that he cannot and will not win it in November — tell us about his candidacy?

First, that the damage done to McCain at the national level by the bailout of Wall Street is being mirrored in the states too. Since the third week of September, five polls have been released in Michigan; Obama had leads of seven, five, six, nine and thirteen points — bringing his average overall edge in the state to 48 percent to 44 percent. “The numbers have been bad in Michigan for some time,” a Republican official told the Post’s Mike Shear.

But, it’s clear from looking at the trend lines that polling was getting worse in the Wolverine State as the focus turned more and more to the economy. The economic hard times in Michigan are as bad as any in the country; the continued collapse of the auto industry has ground the Michigan economy to a virtual halt.

It’s not just the poll numbers it’s also the trend — Obama’s leads increasing rather than stopping or shortening. This decision also has to do with faltering campaigns in swing states that were critical in the last two election cycles. McCain has to concentrate on defending the 2004 map and key states like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio that are slipping out of his favor. Both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics currently project electoral maps heavily in Obama’s favor, with critical states trending toward Obama. McCain has to have all those states to have a chance to win. Obama has many other options, and taking just one of those states could be decisive.